Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 566

   Mesoscale Discussion 0566
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

   Areas affected...Central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...157...

   Valid 271441Z - 271630Z

   CORRECTED FOR PEAK INTENSITY

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156, 157
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail
   is expected to continue beyond the scheduled 15z expiration of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watches 156 and 157. A local extension in time
   may be required.

   DISCUSSION...As of 14z, mosaic radar imagery indicated a leading bow
   echo over west-central IL with trailing, outflow-dominant convection
   bisecting I-70 across central MO. The 12z Springfield, MO sounding
   indicated a very moist low-level air mass with a pronounced capping
   inversion at the base of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by
   700-500-mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km.

   Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the ongoing, trailing
   convection across central MO will linger beyond the scheduled 15z
   expiration of WWs 156 and 157. However, currently it appears that
   the cold pool circulation is not sufficiently strong to overcome the
   currently capping in place. Furthermore, the largely parallel
   orientation of the line to the mid/upper-level flow will limit the
   damaging wind potential. Nonetheless, the presence of strong
   low-level and deep-layer shear will maintain at least an isolated
   damaging wind and/or hail threat this morning.

   ..Mead.. 04/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37869439 38269444 38809293 39489177 39599062 38559023
               38009041 37669279 37869439 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN