Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 974

   Mesoscale Discussion 0974
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

   Areas affected...East and northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040032Z - 040230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts appear possible over the next hour
   or two as convective bands migrate east into a buoyant air mass.

   DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity imagery from KFDX shows a
   pair of convective bands propagating southeast across east and
   northeast NM. Based on the speed of propagation and lack of
   appreciable shear in the region, these bands are mainly being driven
   by cold pool propagation into a buoyant air mass. Latest RAP
   mesoanalysis depicts a regional buoyancy maximum immediately
   downstream across east-central NM, which should maintain the bands
   and may promote some degree of intensification. Additionally,
   low-level lapse rates were recently analyzed at about 9 C/km, which
   will facilitate momentum transfer to the surface. Consequently, some
   potential for localized severe gusts could manifest over the next
   hour or so before the onset of nocturnal cooling and boundary layer
   stabilization.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34920529 35150483 35540450 36060427 36450391 36580345
               36500312 36220292 35200293 34870310 34660341 34520382
               34520450 34610494 34670504 34920529 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH