Mesoscale Discussion 0917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Central and northeast Kansas into adjacent portions
of Nebraska and far western Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...
Valid 310225Z - 310430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind should continue
into the late evening hours. However, this threat should become more
isolated with time.
DISCUSSION...Pockets of strong/severe thunderstorms continue across
portions of central/northeast KS and south-central NE. A persistent
convective cluster northeast of the Wichita, KS area has maintained
intensity over the past hour despite the onset of nocturnal cooling
- likely owing to increasing ascent on the southern flank of the
convective cold pool related to the recent onset of the nocturnal
jet. Similarly, new convective cores are noted across central KS
over the cold pool. Weak deep-layer wind shear should limit
longevity of these cores, but given residual buoyancy and increasing
isentropic ascent, some hail threat may linger as stronger cores
briefly pulse to severe limits.
Further northeast, pockets of strong winds remain evident in
regional velocity imagery across south-central NE and northeast KS.
Additionally, new cell development is noted in the Topeka, KS
vicinity, though cell longevity has been limited - likely due to
similarly modest deep-layer wind shear. Mid-level flow generally
weakens with northeastward extent, which limits confidence in the
potential for a more prolonged/robust severe threat. Consequently,
downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this point. However, a
localized hail/wind threat should persist for the next several
hours.
..Moore.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37579658 37559697 37569722 37669756 38939905 39179909
39619867 40049859 40449879 40759884 40869877 41439779
41429729 41309669 40049538 39689508 39189486 38819502
38159536 37579658
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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