Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 915

   Mesoscale Discussion 0915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Areas affected...parts of northwest Nebraska and western South
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

   Valid 310148Z - 310315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A north-south line of thunderstorms continues across
   portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252. The overall environment
   remains favorable for isolated large hail and damaging winds in the
   short term. Trends will be monitored to determine if an extension in
   time for the watch is needed, but one is currently not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across most of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 this evening. The exception is across
   portions of far northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota. Here, a
   slowly westward moving north-south band of thunderstorms has
   developed/intensified over the last 90 minutes. The environment
   surrounding these storms remains unstable with MUCAPE around
   1000-2000 J/kg, while the deep-layer shear has improved this evening
   to around 30-35 knots. This will result in a continued threat of
   large hail and perhaps damaging thunderstorm winds with the
   strongest cores. 

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 is scheduled to expire at 03Z (9 PM
   MDT). Trends will be monitored over the next hour to see if a local
   extension in time is needed, but current expectations are that
   absent significant increase in intensity, the watch will be allowed
   to expire on time.

   ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41610265 42720354 44640359 45100316 45160251 45030217
               43420203 41840226 41610265 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN