Mesoscale Discussion 0798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...central to south-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...233... Valid 200133Z - 200400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232, 233 continues. SUMMARY...A storm complex may consolidate and shift south/southeast across south-central Texas, with continued threat of locally damaging winds and marginal hail. DISCUSSION...Storms have consolidated into a SW-NE oriented line roughly from Gillespie into Bell/Falls Counties, with recent propagation to the southeast. Given the robust moisture and instability in place, along with southeasterly low-level winds into the complex, it appears likely these storms will maintain intensity for a few more hours as they move across the Austin area, and possibly close to San Antonio later this evening. Gusts at or above 50 mph will be possible, along with hail at or above 1.00" diameter. Farther west, other strong cells are noted along the same aggregate outflow boundary, from Val Verde into Edwards Counties. The 00Z DRT sounding does indicate capping above 850 mb, though not particularly strong, and an MCS appears less likely than farther east. ..Jewell.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30270086 30349931 30559857 30829795 30999733 30659691 30099633 29689678 29359737 29229841 29610065 29990100 30270086 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards