Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 702

   Mesoscale Discussion 0702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

   Areas affected...Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...

   Valid 110550Z - 110715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts will
   remain possible in Deep South Texas. Given weakening trends observed
   over the last hour, a downstream watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Both lightning and radar trends have shown a general
   decrease in intensity of convection moving into Deep South Texas.
   Recent observed wind gusts with a surging portion of the convective
   line from George West/Beeville have been 32-38 kt. As this line
   continues southward, MLCIN will remain relatively low given the
   mid/upper 70s F dewpoints. Occasionally strong/marginally severe
   gusts could occur in an isolated sense. Larger buoyancy resides near
   the Rio Grande. Stronger cells within the valley could also produce
   damaging gusts and perhaps large hail. Given the observed trends, a
   downstream watch is not anticipated.

   ..Wendt.. 05/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27810001 28200036 28510017 28379990 28139955 28009889
               28299820 28609771 28259738 28189735 27319752 26849761
               26809852 26759930 27069960 27810001 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN