Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101910Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong
wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated,
low-topped convection developing along portions of the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead
of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to
low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from
DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level
lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers
across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated
gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any
stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area.
With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and
magnitude, watch issuance is not expected.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614
40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564
39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973
37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards