Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 666

   Mesoscale Discussion 0666
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071234Z - 071430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms with isolated hail potential may increase through
   mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has recently developed east of Del
   Rio, with other developing showers noted across parts of Edwards and
   Val Verde Counties. While the region is post-frontal, rich moisture
   in the 850-700 mb layer beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse
   rates (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding) is resulting in moderate
   to locally strong elevated buoyancy. Strong effective shear and
   elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (also noted on the 12Z DRT
   sounding) are conditionally favorable for elevated supercell
   development with large hail potential. 

   With large-scale ascent expected to remain subtle at best, cell
   maturation and storm coverage within this conditionally favorable
   environment remain uncertain. This in turn results in uncertainty
   regarding the need for a watch. Regardless of watch issuance, storms
   with isolated large hail potential may increase through mid morning.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29730187 30680145 30800041 30720005 30509969 29789938
               29029943 28599984 28480030 28740083 29010093 29730187 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN