Mesoscale Discussion 0663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Areas affected...southern MS into south AL...southwest GA...and the FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 189... Valid 070638Z - 070815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging-wind threat will continue overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of very rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and strong deep-layer flow/shear, convection has become rather disorganized early this morning across southern MS/AL into southwest GA. This is likely due to gradually increasing MLCINH and generally poor low-level lapse rates related to the deep, moist boundary layer. However, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper jet dynamics will continue to sustain convection through the overnight, with most guidance depicting renewed strengthening of 850-700 mb flow. While a cluster mode may be maintained through the overnight hours, strong effective shear (50+ kt) will remain favorable for embedded supercells and/or small bowing segments, if there is any uptick in storm intensity. 0-1 km SRH will conditionally support tornadoes along/ahead of the composite outflow/front that will continue to move southeastward with time. Strong low/midlevel flow will also support damaging-wind potential, especially if any stronger cold pools can become established. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. With some preconvective moistening and destabilization expected into parts of southeast AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, eventual downstream watch issuance is considered likely. ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31198915 31868672 32358431 32308379 31908354 31288357 30918442 30558627 30228791 30188891 30428919 30718922 31198915 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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