Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Louisiana...central
and southern Mississippi...adjacent western Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061657Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms initiating over the next few hours
may begin to more substantively intensify and organize by 3-5 PM
CDT, if not perhaps a bit earlier. A tornado watch likely will be
needed at some point, though timing remains a bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection is contributing to a deepening moist boundary across much
of Louisiana through southern and central Mississippi, beneath warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air. Surface dew points across
this region are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, with breaks in
cloud cover beginning to contribute to destabilization which may
become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg
by late afternoon.
Erosion of inhibition from below has been accompanied by the
development of scattered showers, with isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms likely to continue to gradually initiate over the next
few hours. Particularly toward 20-21Z, when Rapid Refresh suggests
that a low amplitude wave migrating through the crest of broader
ridging aloft may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls, more
substantive intensification appears increasingly probable. This is
likely to include organizing supercells in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear.
Although enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may
remain modest even with some strengthening of southwesterly flow
around 850 mb later this afternoon, profiles may still become
conducive to the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, given
the saturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with high moisture
content. Otherwise, the more discrete stronger cells probably will
be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. The
southward advancing, and undercutting, surface cold front to the
north seems likely to provide the northern limit to this threat,
with the stronger mid-level ridging/capping providing the southern
limit near and inland of coastal areas.
..Kerr/Smith.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32219123 32628988 32878902 32948765 31668761 30728797
30318952 30739078 30849237 31869230 32219123
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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