Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 601

   Mesoscale Discussion 0601
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0418 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Oklahoma into
   southern/central Missouri and northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...172...

   Valid 282118Z - 282245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169, 172
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe potential continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watches 169 and 172, with large hail and occasional damaging/severe
   wind gusts the primary hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms have largely decreased in
   intensity across much of WW169 over the past hour, with the
   exception being an elevated supercell ongoing across south-central
   Missouri that has produced several reports of large hail/damaging
   wind gusts over the past couple of hours. The greatest severe
   potential in the near-term is expected with this supercell as it
   continues eastward into southeastern Missouri. 

   Elsewhere across WW169, low-level warm advection continues to
   maintain 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE with lifted parcel levels between
   700-850 mb. Latest high-res guidance continues to depict the
   potential for additional thunderstorms to develop/move into the
   western/central portions of the watch over the next 1-2 hours amid
   continued upper-level support ahead of an approaching shortwave
   trough moving through Kansas. Elongated hodographs, steep mid-level
   lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will continue to
   support the potential for elevated supercell structures and an
   attendant risk for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts with
   any future development. 

   Any developing thunderstorms that can become surface-based
   along/south of a surface frontal boundary currently analyzed across
   northern Arkansas may also bring the potential for a tornado or two.
   Trends will continue to be monitored, and local watch extensions in
   time may be needed to cover these threats.

   ..Chalmers.. 04/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37289513 37709443 38159361 38399301 38519225 38189116
               37729056 37059007 36309032 36089150 35809324 35809499
               36099562 36699558 37289513 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN