Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 596

   Mesoscale Discussion 0596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into central and southern
   Missouri and northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

   Valid 281808Z - 282015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail is expected to remain the predominant
   severe-weather hazard across the watch area this afternoon. That
   threat is expected to spread east/northeast of the existing watch,
   and an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be required.
   Elsewhere, increasing tornado risk may materialize across portions
   of north-central into northeast Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A number of supercells, both right- and left-moving,
   have developed across the watch area with hail up to 3.25" in
   diameter being reported. A combination of low-level warm advection
   and increased DCVA downstream from a short-wave trough moving
   through KS are driving this convective activity. Given the
   progressive nature of the short-wave trough, the storms are expected
   to spread east/northeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169, likely
   necessitating an additional downstream watch. 

   The majority of the storms appear to be elevated atop a boundary
   layer with temperatures in the 50s and 60s at most locations.
   However, filtered sunshine across portions of north-central into
   northeast AR has allowed temperatures to warm into the 70s.
   Moreover, the surface front in place across central into northeast
   AR appears to be slowly lifting north with dewpoints increasing into
   the mid 60s to the north of the boundary.

   Current thinking is that the supercell ongoing in Searcy County, AR
   will become increasingly surface-based as it continues east into the
   warming/moistening boundary layer. Ahead of that storm, RAP forecast
   soundings indicate gradually strengthening low-level shear in
   response to a strengthening low-level jet across AR. The net result
   is an increasing concern for a couple tornadoes in parts of
   north-central into northeast AR this afternoon. An areal extension
   of Tornado Watch #170 may become necessary to accommodate that
   threat.

   ..Mead.. 04/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35729623 36439634 37729434 38829232 38559086 37259014
               36359064 35729097 35579157 35729623 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN