Mesoscale Discussion 0586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...and far western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...166... Valid 280309Z - 280515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162, 166 continues. SUMMARY...A transition to a mix of convective modes is ongoing. While the potential for severe hail may be decreasing, the threat for tornadoes and severe winds continues. DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity data shows gradual upscale growth across north-central AR as new convection develops along a cold front. Initially semi-discrete supercells across southern MO have recently shown some signs of weakening and/or poor organization - likely the result of being displaced behind an outflow boundary, which is becoming more apparent in velocity imagery. Further southwest, convective clusters and semi-discrete supercells continue to develop across north-central AR. This activity continues to spread east into a very favorable environment for organized convection with KLZK and KNQA VWPs now sampling 0-1 km SRH between 450-500 m2/s2. The loss of discrete supercells should modulate the potential for very large hail to some degree, but even with a transition to a mix of convective bands and embedded supercells, the environment will support the potential for tornadoes (potentially strong) and swaths of severe winds. Latest high-res guidance, including recent WoFS ensemble runs, suggest that the greatest tornado/severe wind threat will reside across northern AR and southeast MO into adjacent portions of IL, TN, and KY over the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35589323 35979196 36579075 37248981 37388945 37428916 37348889 37138874 36748881 36338905 36068936 35848966 35589025 35459097 35319285 35329311 35489325 35589323 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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