Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 153...
Valid 270356Z - 270530Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 153 continues.
SUMMARY...Local extensions of WW 152 may be needed based on the
evolution of convection across far northeast Oklahoma and
north-central Oklahoma over the next hour.
DISCUSSION...With the recent demise of a supercell near the
Bartlesville, OK area, the short-term severe threat across WW 152 is
now primarily confined to far northeast OK where convection
continues to intensify on the western flank of a robust supercell
located in far southeast KS. Although this back building convection
is not ideally located on the storm scale for discrete convection,
it is intensifying within an environment characterized by STP values
of 4-6 per recent mesoanalysis estimates. These estimates seem to be
a valid characterization of the environment based on nearby KINX VWP
observations, which are sampling 0-1 km SRH on the order of 500
m2/s2. Additionally, a weak low-level confluence boundary is noted
draped across northeast OK into far northwest AR with at least one
attempt at new convective development noted near the OK/MO/AR
border. Given the highly favorable shear environment (and reservoir
of nearly 3500 J/kg MLCAPE), severe convection will remain possible
for the next couple of hours across far northeast OK and perhaps far
northwest AR.
Further west, GOES IR imagery depicts an intensifying cell near
Fairview, OK. This intensification appears to be coincident with the
cell crossing a northward advancing warm front, suggesting that it
is now beginning to ingest near-surface parcels. Consequently,
further intensification of this cell is expected, and given the
favorable sheared environment downstream, will likely pose some
tornado concern in the next couple of hours across portions of
north-central OK.
Given these localized convective trends, portions of WW 152 may need
to be extended in time to address the developing concerns.
..Moore.. 04/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35879496 36209529 36389557 36449593 36419629 36359659
36369681 36569704 36879709 37049689 37129643 37129553
37069491 36769430 36449383 36139375 35839384 35639408
35579441 35669474 35879496
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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