Mesoscale Discussion 0467
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

   Valid 162046Z - 162245Z

   CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated risk for supercells capable of large hail and
   damaging wind through the late afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted across southeastern OK
   over the last 1-2 hours. Forcing in this region is generally weak,
   with the shortwave trough to the north and dry mid-level air noted
   in water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, strong daytime heating has
   occurred (with temperature in the 80s). This in combination with dew
   points in the upper 60s to 70s has yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000
   J/kg amid strong deep layer shear around 40 kts. Guidance suggests
   that an isolated supercell or two could develop within this region.
   Conditionally, these would support a risk for large hail and
   damaging wind. This area will be monitored for potential development
   and need for watch extension.

   ..Thornton.. 04/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34619254 35199253 35509269 35759291 35959338 36059366
               36099470 34949555 34389566 33959558 33889508 33849473
               34049323 34619254 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN