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| Mesoscale Discussion 1017 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks into central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 284... Valid 072058Z - 072230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across Tornado Watch 284, with this severe potential possibly extending farther south into central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms remain ongoing from central Missouri southward into central/southern Arkansas ahead of a mid-level MCV analyzed over northeastern Oklahoma. Several areas of transient, weak rotation have been noted with marginal supercell structures over the past 1-2 hours, with a recent report of a brief tornado in Newton County, Arkansas. While mid-level flow has weakened some since 19z (per the SGF VAD profile), backed surface winds across central/southern Missouri are maintaining 75-100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Coupled with modest effective shear around 30 kts (per latest objective analysis), this will continue to support the potential for marginal supercells and a couple of tornadoes across Tornado Watch 284 for at least another 1-2 hours. Farther south into central Arkansas, modestly weaker low-level shear and more veered surface winds should yield somewhat reduced tornado potential; although, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. High PWAT content (2+ inches) continues to promote a risk for localized damaging downburst winds. ..Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34449347 35019350 35299369 35469399 35679438 35949455 36309466 36899472 37389468 37779449 38009409 38119343 38059309 37669260 37269229 36659208 35859213 34869226 34549239 34299266 34249303 34249334 34449347 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH | |
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