Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1014

   Mesoscale Discussion 1014
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks and ArkLaTex

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071816Z - 072015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
   afternoon from the Ozarks southward into the Ouachita Mountains and
   ArkLaTex. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging winds gusts
   are possible. Trends will be monitored for the potential issuance of
   a targeted Tornado Watch for a portion of the discussion area.

   DISCUSSION...Continued heating of a very moist low-level air mass is
   supporting an increase in thunderstorm coverage across portions of
   the Ozarks southward into ArkLaTex as of early this afternoon ahead
   of an MCV evident near Tulsa, OK, in latest satellite/radar imagery.
   An associated band of 30-40+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow is
   located downstream of this MCV, with around 40-45 kt recently
   sampled around 4 km AGL by the SRX/SGF VAD profiles. This will
   continue to contribute to a modest enlargement of low-level
   hodographs, with around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH expected by
   mid-afternoon. This will promote the potential for weak supercells
   and a couple of tornadoes, with the greatest potential expected
   across southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas where locally
   backed surface flow yield a further enhancement to low-level
   hodographs (around 70-75 0-1 km SRH recently sampled by the SGF
   VAD). Rich moisture (PWATs of 1.75-2.0+ inches, as sampled by
   regional 12z observed soundings) may also support occasional
   water-loaded downbursts and isolated damaging wind gusts.

   Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a targeted
   Tornado Watch may be considered for a portion of the discussion
   area.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34079493 34539504 35509509 36969505 38169492 38699461
               38929419 39099349 39109303 39049266 38539167 38269138
               37879129 36859151 35599200 35119227 34499264 34019328
               33869383 33869438 33909470 34079493 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH