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Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central New York
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM
until 1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose some threat for large
hail and perhaps a few tornadoes as they move eastward late this
afternoon and evening across parts of western and central NY. A
strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least
semi-discrete this evening. Thunderstorms will likely grow upscale
into a bowing cluster later this evening, with a greater threat for
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Watertown NY
to 60 miles east of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 643...WW 644...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Gleason
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central New York
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM
until 1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose some threat for large
hail and perhaps a few tornadoes as they move eastward late this
afternoon and evening across parts of western and central NY. A
strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least
semi-discrete this evening. Thunderstorms will likely grow upscale
into a bowing cluster later this evening, with a greater threat for
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Watertown NY
to 60 miles east of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 643...WW 644...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5 WW 645 TORNADO NY LE LO 022040Z - 030300Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 35WNW ART/WATERTOWN NY/ - 60E JHW/JAMESTOWN NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /65NNW SYR - 38N SLT/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. LAT...LON 44187496 42137642 42137974 44187839 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU5.
Watch 645 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Mod (50%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes |
Mod (30%) |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
High (70%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (20%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Mod (40%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Mod (30%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (90%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.