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cat $HOME/public_html/posts/storm-prediction-center-severe-thunderstorm-watch-631.txt >> story.html | parse_story story.html; rm -f storm-prediction-center-severe-thunderstorm-watch-631.txt story.html
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Western Connecticut
Far Western Massachusetts
New York
Northeast Pennsylvania
Far Southern Vermont
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
increase this afternoon as shortwave trough and associated cold
front approach the region from the west. Environmental conditions
support the potential for strong to severe storms, with damaging
wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary hazards. A
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Glens Falls NY to 20 miles west of Monticello NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 630...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Mosier
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Western Connecticut
Far Western Massachusetts
New York
Northeast Pennsylvania
Far Southern Vermont
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
increase this afternoon as shortwave trough and associated cold
front approach the region from the west. Environmental conditions
support the potential for strong to severe storms, with damaging
wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary hazards. A
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Glens Falls NY to 20 miles west of Monticello NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 630...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Mosier
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1 WW 631 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY PA VT 271750Z - 280100Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 45NW GFL/GLENS FALLS NY/ - 20W MSV/MONTICELLO NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /63SSW PLB - 22SSE HNK/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025. LAT...LON 43787255 41697354 41697683 43787596 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU1.
Watch 631 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 631 VALID 272340Z - 280040Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MSV TO 55 N MSV TO 30 WNW EEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 ..WENDT..08/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-280040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD $$ MAC003-280040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE $$ NYC001-021-025-027-039-083-095-105-111-280040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS GREENE RENSSELAER SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER $$ PAC069-079-103-127-280040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE WAYNE $$ VTC003-280040- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 631 VALID 272245Z - 272340Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AVP TO 30 SE UCA TO 10 SSE MPV. ..WENDT..08/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-272340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD $$ MAC003-272340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE $$ NYC001-021-025-027-035-039-041-049-057-077-083-091-093-095-105- 111-113-115-272340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON LEWIS MONTGOMERY OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON $$ PAC069-079-103-127-131-272340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE WAYNE WYOMING $$ VTC003-272340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 631 VALID 272030Z - 272140Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 ..MEAD..08/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-272140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD $$ MAC003-272140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE $$ NYC001-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-049-053- 057-065-067-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111- 113-115-123-272140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES $$ PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-272140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING $$ VTC003-272140- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 631 VALID 271930Z - 272040Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..08/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-272040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD $$ MAC003-272040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE $$ NYC001-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-049-053- 057-065-067-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111- 113-115-123-272040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES $$ PAC015-069-079-115-127-131-272040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING $$ VTC003-272040- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 631 VALID 271835Z - 271940Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..08/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-271940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD $$ MAC003-271940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE $$ NYC001-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-049-053- 057-065-067-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111- 113-115-123-271940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES $$ PAC015-069-079-115-127-131-271940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING $$ VTC003-271940- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes |
Low ( |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (60%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (20%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Mod (40%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (20%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (90%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.