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Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Arizona
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain of
east-central Arizona. Somewhat similar to yesterday, these storms
will track southwestward through the evening, posing a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Safford
AZ to 40 miles west southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
07025.
...Hart
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Arizona
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM MST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain of
east-central Arizona. Somewhat similar to yesterday, these storms
will track southwestward through the evening, posing a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Safford
AZ to 40 miles west southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
07025.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8 WW 538 SEVERE TSTM AZ 042130Z - 050500Z AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30N SAD/SAFFORD AZ/ - 40WSW FHU/SIERRA VISTA AZ/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /64NNW SSO - 45S TUS/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 07025. LAT...LON 33280859 31350994 31351197 33281067 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU8.
Watch 538 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 538 VALID 050150Z - 050240Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SAD TO 40 SE SAD. ..KERR..08/05/26 ATTN...WFO...TWC... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC003-009-019-023-050240- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COCHISE GRAHAM PIMA SANTA CRUZ $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Low ( |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes |
Low ( |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (60%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (10%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (10%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (80%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.