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| Mesoscale Discussion 943 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...North central Arkansas into northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...263... Valid 012216Z - 020015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 263 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase across central to eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi in the next couple of hours. While hail remains a short-term concern, the potential for damaging wind will likely increase in the coming hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a collection of pulse convection and loosely organized convective bands across north-central AR into far northwest MS. This activity continues to occasionally intensify to near severe limits based on MRMS vertically integrated ice and MESH data, but the weakly sheared environment is largely limiting the longevity of individual cells. Nonetheless, a more persistent cluster is emerging across north-central AR with discernible southward propagation that suggests a cold pool is becoming well established. Given very high buoyancy immediately downstream it appears likely that this cluster will persist and may increase in coverage as new convection develops near or along the cold pool. Additionally, new cells are emerging along a residual outflow boundary draped east/southeastward into northwest MS with upscale growth likely as thunderstorm coverage increases and cold pool amalgamation occurs. The expectation over the next few hours is that one or more prominent clusters (and/or a loosely organized MCS) will emerge out of north-central to east-central AR with an increasing potential for damaging winds. ..Moore.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 33678952 33618984 33809010 34079065 34279107 34469156 34869257 35179314 35399352 35599370 35929380 36219359 36419329 36489291 36429204 36169123 35158977 34788938 34238926 33868928 33678952 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN | |
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