Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri....southern Illinois
and adjacent southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky and adjacent
northwestern Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011101Z - 011330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development probably will be maintained
southeastward across areas near and northeast of the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence through 8-10 AM CDT, but with more
limited potential for severe wind and hail. While a new watch is
not currently anticipated in the near term, trends will continue to
be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development persists with a bit
further upscale growth. It has not yet become particularly
organized, but a meso beta scale convective vortex may be developing
near/west-northwest of St. Louis. Coupled with continuing broad
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, this may maintain
southeastward development of convection across the lower Ohio
Valley, near and northeast of its confluence with the Mississippi
River, through 14-15Z. As this occurs, it does appear that moist
inflow on its western flank will become at least a bit more stable.
Furthermore, downstream of convection, the boundary layer is, at
least initially, a bit cooler/drier and more stable across
southeastern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley, which seems likely
to limit the strength of associated surface gusts in descending
convective outflow.
..Kerr/Hart.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 38279027 38878986 38278813 37158697 36168872 36818983
37869136 38279027
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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