Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 872

   Mesoscale Discussion 0872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...South-central Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...

   Valid 190441Z - 190645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of
   south-central Kansas over the next couple of hours. A strong tornado
   will be likely, and an EF3+ tornado could occur.

   DISCUSSION...An intense tornadic supercell is ongoing about 50
   statute miles to the west-northwest of Wichita, KS. This storm is
   located just to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where
   the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This
   supercell is also located just to the southwest of the center of a
   50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The low-level jet is creating very
   strong low-level shear, which is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at
   Wichita. This is creating a long looped hodograph and 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicity of near 650 m2/s2. This environment will be
   favorable for tornadoes, and a EF3+ tornado will be possible. In
   addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 8 C/km, which will be favorable for large hail.
   Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may also accompany
   the more intense cores.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38329826 38309779 38109763 37869764 37739790 37679830
               37729861 37959874 38239855 38329826 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN