Mesoscale Discussion 0864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...
Valid 262220Z - 262345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of greater severe potential appears likely
downstream of a developing cluster with embedded supercell
structures, with a threat for all severe hazards.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts an evolving thunderstorm
cluster to the south of Del Rio, Texas, as of 2200 UTC. Although
hail estimates have since decreased to some extent, MRMS and other
MESH estimates of hail size ranged from 2-3+ inches in diameter over
the past hour, with stronger low-level rotation also previously
noted (Vrot exceeded 35-40 kts) with an embedded supercell
structure. The environment downstream of this cluster remains
supportive of all severe hazards, with effective layer STP and SHIP
values of 2-3 analyzed via latest objective analysis and 150 m2/s2
0-500 SRH sampled by the DFX VAD profile.
Latest high-res guidance suggests that this cluster will propagate
east-southeastward into south-central Texas over the next couple of
hours, yielding a corridor of greater severe potential. Recent
WoFS/HRRR runs in particular suggest that severe to significant
severe gusts will be the primary hazard. While the cluster storm
mode may somewhat limit the magnitude of the tornado/hail threat,
large to very large hail and a tornado or two will still remain
possible with any embedded supercell structures.
Downstream of this cluster, a discrete supercell that has recently
produced large hail and measured severe gusts remains ongoing, with
some signs of additional discrete development to its south (towering
Cu and weak reflectivity echoes noted in McMullen County). Will
monitor for a downstream watch pending this development or the
eventual southeastward propagation of the aforementioned cluster.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29440083 29470051 29429966 29439957 29319882 29039821
28679795 28399797 28229807 28119833 28119886 28199932
28309968 28480038 28790100 29090107 29320094 29440083
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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