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| Mesoscale Discussion 847 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Western Kansas into southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241905Z - 242100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as
thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Limited coverage should
preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Despite limited moisture, cumulus have been deepening
along the surface trough in far eastern Colorado and northwest
Kansas/southwest Nebraska. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to low
90s F. When modifying the 18Z observed LBF sounding for these
conditions, MLCIN is minimal. It is likely to take some time before
thunderstorms can develop/intensify as greater moisture/buoyancy
exists to the east of the current convection. Higher
temperature/dewpoint spreads suggests severe wind gusts will be the
primary hazard this afternoon. Greater confidence in storm
development exists from northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska as
moisture/shear are greater here.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39079942 37880032 37510107 37480181 37710231 40500102
40680098 40840022 40619905 39649899 39079942
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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