Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 843

   Mesoscale Discussion 0843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

   Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

   Valid 232316Z - 240045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts will increase through
   02z (9 PM CDT) from the northwest into central Texas Panhandle.
   Isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, individual thunderstorms have
   consolidated in to a line, which extends from south-central Cimarron
   County in the western OK Panhandle southwest through western parts
   of Dallam and Hartley Counties in the northwest Tx Panhandle as of
   2310 UTC. Recent KAMA base velocity data indicate multiple channels
   of stronger winds embedded within the line, suggestive of a
   gradually organizing cold pool. The downstream air mass across the
   TX Panhandle is modestly moist with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
   largely contributing to MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg, per objective
   analysis.

   The current KAMA VWP is sampling southeasterly winds within the
   lowest 2-3-km AGL, which are forecast to strengthen in the 01-03z
   time frame, effectively enhancing storm-relative inflow into the
   evolving convective system. That coupled with around 30-35 kt of
   effective bulk shear, and the steep lapse rates may support the
   southeastward acceleration of the ongoing thunderstorm line into the
   central Panhandle by 02z (9 PM CDT) or earlier, with an attendant
   risk for severe wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated occurrences of
   large hail.

   ..Mead.. 05/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35770303 36310298 36520279 36600249 36390162 35790113
               35320128 35050156 34990207 35420289 35770303 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN