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| Mesoscale Discussion 838 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado...western/central
nebraska and northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231824Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the central High Plains. A few stronger storms could emerge with a
risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, visible imagery showed initial ACCAS
and boundary layer cumulus over parts of NE/CO was beginning to
deepen with diurnal warming. This heating, amid modest (40s F)
surface dewpoints is support weak destabilization, which should
continue through the afternoon. Aided by weak ascent from a broad
upper trough over the High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread eastward into this evening.
While initially buoyancy (SBCAPE ~ 500 J/kg) and vertical shear will
be on the weaker side, 20-30 kt of effective shear could support a
few organized multi cell clusters. Steep lapse rates in the low and
mid-level should support a risk for some hail and damaging gusts
with the stronger storms. CAM solutions show some clustering as
convection gradually spreads eastward with a slight increase in
deep-layer shear late this afternoon into the early evening. While
an isolated severe risk is possible, the weaker buoyancy and
initially more limited vertical shear should keep the threat
isolated. Thus a WW is unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40060001 39020108 38970243 39800279 41170259 42310156
42380061 42289989 41729941 40869964 40060001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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