Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 721

    
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0721
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

   Areas affected...central and southwest Kansas into the Texas South
   Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202...

   Valid 142255Z - 150030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for 60-75 mph wind gusts is expected to
   continue through about 02 or 03z, before the boundary-layer starts
   to stabilize.

   DISCUSSION...As of 22:50Z, mosaic radar data shows widely scattered
   to scattered, high-based thunderstorms ongoing from along and south
   of U.S. 54 in southwest KS into the TX South Plains. The majority of
   storms are occurring west of a diffuse dryline within a hot and
   deeply mixed boundary layer with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Area VWPs
   indicate relatively weak deep-layer shear of generally less than 30
   kt, which should limit the potential for storm
   organization/longevity. Nonetheless, active cold pools and the
   presence of a short-wave trough moving into western KS are likely to
   support continued, multicellular and pulse-type storms capable of
   60-75 mph wind gusts.

   Overall storm coverage and intensity are expected to diminish by 02
   or 03z as the boundary layer starts to cool and stabilize. A
   possible exception is east of a Great Bend to Pratt, KS line where
   weak, but existent convection is in close proximity to the dryline,
   and a stronger capped, but more unstable environment. If storms can
   become established east of the dryline, a potentially
   longer-duration severe-weather threat could materialize as the
   nocturnal low-level jet strengthens.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 05/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
   ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34570305 36210309 36990302 37360212 38290129 38810076
               39259966 39279805 37689790 37009854 35979935 34509934
               33489994 33040026 33000156 33000279 33290303 34570305 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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