Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 716

   Mesoscale Discussion 0716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...201...

   Valid 132347Z - 140115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199, 201
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) will
   continue spreading eastward into eastern Montana -- within WW201.

   DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms moving eastward into eastern
   MT have evolved into a loosely organized squall line along a
   north/south-oriented surface trough/confluence zone. This band of
   storms will continue spreading eastward in tandem with the leading
   edge of midlevel height falls accompanying a robust midlevel trough.
   Around 40 kt of midlevel west-southwesterly flow oriented
   perpendicular to the leading gust front and a hot/dry pre-convective
   boundary layer will favor a continued risk of severe wind gusts
   (some possibly up to 75 mph) with eastward extent (within WW201).

   ..Weinman.. 05/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46200885 46820879 48190849 48550850 48910827 49010736
               48730697 48060669 46670688 46260728 46040789 46020846
               46200885 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH