Mesoscale Discussion 0590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 280949Z - 281245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the morning hours, with isolated damaging hail possible. A
watch may be required.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front moving northward
into northwest TX and across the Red River, with 68-70 F dewpoints
to the south. Both IR imagery and GPS water vapor sensors indicate a
rapid northward surge of moisture, with PWAT values increasing from
0.55 to over 1.20" in about 2 hours. Already, thunderstorms have
developed 1-2 hours ahead of schedule southeast of LBB, and a
gradual increase has been seen in storm intensity.
Southerly winds just off the surface will raise elevated instability
values north of the warm front over the next several hours. Some
forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, though effective
value will depend on moisture depth/quality in the elevated
slab/layer. Clearly, the environment will favor hail regardless,
with deep-layer effective shear over 60 kt, along with steep lapse
rates aloft and ample/increasing moisture.
Uncertainty exists as to how far north severe hail cells will
develop, but consensus is at least into southern OK. Significant
hail over 2.00" diameter is quite possible, perhaps larger should
sustained elevated supercells develop as depicted by some models. As
such, a watch will need to be considered this morning.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33110118 33500114 34600015 35099890 35319756 35049663
34489661 34189678 33759729 33199918 33000083 33110118
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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