Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 523

   Mesoscale Discussion 0523
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Areas affected...far southern Arkansas...northeast
   Louisiana...southwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250032Z - 250230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms near an outflow boundary may produce
   brief periods of marginal hail this evening from southern Arkansas
   into northern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to push southward across
   northern LA and into southwest MS. This boundary is undercutting a
   very moist and unstable air mass, with periodic strong to marginally
   severe storms at times.

   Forcing for ascent is generally limited to this shallow boundary, as
   southwesterly boundary layer winds are not particularly strong. For
   example, 15-20 kt at 850 mb on area VWPs. However, given such strong
   instability on nearby 00Z soundings, the undercutting action/lift of
   the outflow boundary may be enough for a couple more hours of
   marginal severe risk, including hail at or above 1.00" and localized
   strong gusts. Given the scattered and likely short-lived nature of
   these cells, a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Jewell/Leitman.. 04/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32359326 32759334 33569330 33609273 32239066 31838994
               31628956 31158965 31038980 31079061 31219139 31659233
               31939293 32359326 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN