Mesoscale Discussion 0511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Areas affected...Iowa into northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138... Valid 240041Z - 240245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat continues across central IA into northwest Missouri as a squall line continues east. Damaging winds will remain the primary concern. DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to progress east across central IA and northwest MO. Wind observations from along the line have largely remained in the 40-55 mph range, though pockets of stronger velocities embedded within the line are apparent in regional radars, and a gust up to 65 mph was recently observed near Winterset, IA. Additionally, weak embedded circulations are evident near KDMX in proximity to the RDA, and are mainly associated with broken portions of the line where updraft/downdraft convergence zones are more zonally oriented. KDMX VWP observations recently sampled around 25 knots of southerly 0-1 km bulk shear, which should continue to support the potential for brief circulations within any broken or locally bowing section of the line. However, the overall tornado threat should remain low as MLCAPE begins to degrade with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Additionally, lightning counts have been declining over the past hour, suggesting that this may be onset of a weakening trend that has been anticipated by high-res guidance after 00 UTC. Consequently, the severe threat should wane further over the next few hours. ..Moore.. 04/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42779205 41739253 41069299 40599336 40169391 39919432 39769463 39759487 39819507 39919524 40189504 40479478 41609406 42419358 42909337 43029332 43169295 43249245 43229212 43109205 42779205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards