Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 507

   Mesoscale Discussion 0507
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into far northern Missouri and
   central Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

   Valid 232204Z - 240000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will spread east over
   the next 2-4 hours into central Iowa and far northern Missouri.
   Trends will be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Across western IA, a convective band is showing signs
   of intensification with a low to mid-level wind surge noted within
   portions of the line - possibly the early stages of a rear inflow
   jet. Downstream of this band, mid-level lapse rates remain fairly
   steep (around 8 C/km), which may contribute to some intensification
   of the line and an increasing wind threat downstream into central IA
   over the coming hours. 

   Further south, a supercell with a history of producing severe hail
   continues to show signs of intensification with an established
   mesocyclone now apparent in KOAX velocity data. This cell will
   continue to pose a threat for severe hail as well as tornadoes
   (including the potential for a strong tornado) as it moves
   downstream into southwest IA/northwest MO over the next 1-2 hours.
   Continued clustering and upscale growth along the front may limit
   the tornado and hail potential beyond the 23-00 UTC time frame.

   Later this evening, a weakening trend is anticipated as convection
   migrates into a region with stronger capping and diminishing
   deep-layer wind shear. However, some severe threat will likely
   persist beyond 00 UTC across central, and perhaps portions of
   eastern, IA. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated in the coming
   hours as this activity approaches the eastern bounds of WW 134.

   ..Moore.. 04/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40269647 40879575 41849511 42619486 43189447 43439351
               43449256 43319235 43029223 42599227 41989248 41429276
               40959311 40489351 40269406 40159475 40169583 40129617
               40269647 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN