Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 503

   Mesoscale Discussion 0503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa and far
   northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

   Valid 231937Z - 232100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues. Storms should increase in
   coverage and intensity through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW 134, a band of strong to severe thunderstorms
   has developed along the modified cold front from far northwestern IA
   into eastern NE. A mix of line segments and supercells has been
   observed so far. Area VADs and 18z RAOBs show the environment
   remains unstable (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and moderately sheared
   (35-45 kt EBWD), conducive for severe storms. Additional storm
   development is likely through the afternoon as the cold front moves
   eastward. Hail and damaging winds are expected with these storms as
   they continue to mature. While low-level hodographs remain modest,
   surface pressure falls and a mixed mode of supercells and line
   segments will likely support a risk for a couple tornadoes.

   Radar trends and recent CAM guidance suggest the additional storm
   coverage should result in slow upscale growth into one or more
   linear clusters. With a transition to a more linear mode, the
   damaging gust threat would likely increase, along with the potential
   for embedded tornadoes through the afternoon hours. Given this, the
   severe risk continues over much of WW134.

   ..Lyons.. 04/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40109733 41799626 43519554 43529471 43509354 43009345
               42419369 40829403 40399477 40189520 40069561 40109733 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN