Mesoscale Discussion 0370
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

   Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska and portions of northern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

   Valid 092333Z - 100130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind will continue to
   increase across north-central to northeast Kansas over the next
   couple of hours as thunderstorm coverage increases and clustering
   occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and radar trends across far northern KS
   and along the KS/NE border show an uptick in thunderstorm coverage
   amid a localized increase in low-level ascent driven by a
   combination of strengthening isentropic ascent (associated with a
   modest uptick in 0-3 km southerly winds per regional VWPs) and
   forcing along a localized southward surge of a frontal boundary
   (noted in KUEX reflectivity). More isolated developing supercells
   are also noted to the north of I-70, though somewhat weaker ascent
   away from the mesoscale boundaries has resulted in a more gradual
   intensification thus far.

   Regardless, based on recent RAP forecast soundings modified by local
   surface observations, MLCAPE values to the south of the primary
   synoptic boundary are likely between 1500-2000 J/kg downstream of
   the developing cells/clusters. With effective bulk shear values
   ranging 35-40 knots, the maintenance of discrete and semi-discrete
   supercells appears likely over the next hour or so with an attendant
   threat for severe hail. Hail stones between 1.5 and 1.75 inches in
   diameter have been recently noted with some of this activity, but
   the thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears supportive of
   hail up to 2 to 2.5 inches as along as discrete storm modes can be
   maintained. 

   With time, eastward storm propagation and strengthening ascent at
   the terminus of an increasing low-level jet will promote additional
   thunderstorm development. High cloud bases near 2 km atop a somewhat
   deep/dry boundary layer are supporting strong downbursts per
   regional velocity data and live web cams. This trend suggests that
   convective outflows may be fairly widespread, and coupled with
   increasing ascent/storm coverage, will likely result in clustering
   and an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours
   downstream across northeast KS.

   ..Moore.. 04/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38899849 39009874 39279880 39869869 40049856 40149823
               40179583 39989557 39699557 39269578 38999609 38979655
               38859817 38899849 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN