Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2409

                        
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Mesoscale Discussion 2409

   Mesoscale Discussion 2409
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251854Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur
   with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness through much of the morning has
   hindered diurnal heating/destabilization, but recent clearing has
   occurred across parts of northern/central NM. As surface
   temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and large-scale ascent
   attendant to an ejecting mid/upper-level trough overspreads this
   region, convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage as
   weak boundary-layer instability develops. A belt of stronger
   south-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of NM this
   afternoon, and related 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support
   updraft organization. However, generally weak instability (less than
   1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest mid-level lapse rates (especially
   around/above 500 mb) are expected to limit the overall severe risk.
   Isolated/marginally severe hail should be the main threat with any
   cells that develop and track northeastward over the next several
   hours. Some risk for locally gusty winds may also exist where
   low-level lapse rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
   Given the isolated severe risk forecast, watch issuance is not
   expected at this time.

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33760672 34570712 35170744 35650836 36220828 36280759
               36020619 35430516 34700471 33650474 33360526 33500638
               33760672 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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Mesoscale Discussion 2409


Mesoscale Discussion 2409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251854Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness through much of the morning has hindered diurnal heating/destabilization, but recent clearing has occurred across parts of northern/central NM. As surface temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and large-scale ascent attendant to an ejecting mid/upper-level trough overspreads this region, convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage as weak boundary-layer instability develops. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of NM this afternoon, and related 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support updraft organization. However, generally weak instability (less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest mid-level lapse rates (especially around/above 500 mb) are expected to limit the overall severe risk. Isolated/marginally severe hail should be the main threat with any cells that develop and track northeastward over the next several hours. Some risk for locally gusty winds may also exist where low-level lapse rates can become steepened with daytime heating. Given the isolated severe risk forecast, watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 33760672 34570712 35170744 35650836 36220828 36280759 36020619 35430516 34700471 33650474 33360526 33500638 33760672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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