Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2398

   Mesoscale Discussion 2398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Nevada...southwest Utah and extreme
   northwest Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221747Z - 221915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts, isolated large hail and an
   isolated tornado will all be possible.  However, the threat is
   expected to remain relatively sparse and on the lower margins for a
   broad area, so a watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A midlevel trough over southern/central CA is beginning
   to eject east-northeastward toward the southern Great Basin, with
   downstream forcing for ascent likewise overspreading eastern NV,
   western UT and extreme northwest AZ.  Surface heating in cloud
   breaks is contributing to destabilization and storm coverage is
   expected to increase in broken bands through the afternoon.  Long,
   straight hodographs will favor a mix of splitting cells and line
   segments capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe
   gusts.  The magnitude of the threat will be limited somewhat by
   relatively shallow buoyancy profiles.  The environment is a bit more
   favorable for supercells across southwest UT and vicinity where
   buoyancy is larger with mid-upper 50s dewpoints and the storm mode
   will be semi-discrete.

   ..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   38521352 37771251 37091245 36451284 36021428 36161494
               36631536 37591530 38521523 39501533 40961565 41981562
               41981498 39861446 38521352 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN