Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2284

   Mesoscale Discussion 2284
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

   Areas affected...Minnesota...Far Southeast South Dakota...Far
   Northeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666...

   Valid 120136Z - 120330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue over the next
   couple of hours from parts of central Minnesota southwestward into
   far northeast Nebraska. Hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe
   storms from north-central Minnesota southwestward into western
   Minnesota. This line segment is located along an axis of moderate
   instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
   range. RAP forecasts within the instability max over western
   Minnesota early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with
   some directional shear in the 850 to 700 mb layer. In addition, the
   RAP suggests 850-500 mb lapse rates are in the 6.5 to 7 C/km range.
   This environment will support a continued severe risk, with perhaps
   severe wind gusts and hail possible. However, these threats will
   probably diminish with time and eastward extent. As the line moves
   eastward across central Minnesota, isolated severe wind gusts will
   also be possible along the more intense parts of the line.

   Further to the southwest, a second line of strong storms is located
   from far southeastern South Dakota into far northeast Nebraska. In
   this area, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have about 35
   knots of deep-layer shear. However, these storms are located to the
   south of the stronger large-scale ascent. For this reason, the
   severe threat associated with these storms is expected to remain
   marginal.

   ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   46709476 46909448 46919409 46759385 46429387 45859422
               45469453 44519495 43779538 42649651 42069723 41829763
               41749810 41789829 41969836 42159836 42379817 42789779
               43899634 44779589 45439604 46339515 46709476 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN