Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2283

   Mesoscale Discussion 2283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

   Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into north-central Minnesota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112051Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this evening. All severe
   weather hazards are possible.

   DISCUSSION...SPC HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows eroding inhibition
   ahead of a cold front across west-central Minnesota and into
   northeast South Dakota. Surface-based cumulus evolution has been
   mostly masked by mid-level cloud cover across the region. However,
   some surface-based cumulus can be seen across eastern South Dakota
   where breaks in the mid-level cloud deck are present. The lack of
   more clear satellite imagery along the front is resulting in
   uncertainty on storm timing. Expect storms to be along the front
   where convergence is maximized. The latest HRRR shows storm
   development between 23Z and 00Z. However, the elevated storms across
   northeast Minnesota developed 1 to 2 hours earlier than the latest
   HRRR forecast. Given the presence of cu across the area and an
   uncapped warm sector (per SPC mesoanalysis), combined with slightly
   earlier timing from the elevated storms, expect storm development
   along the front between 21Z and 22Z. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and
   effective shear around 35 to 40 knots will support organized storms
   and a threat for large hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging wind
   gusts. Low-level shear will support a tornado threat, but storm mode
   may quickly go linear which may limit the overall threat, despite
   veering low-level flow and moderate speed shear. A watch will likely
   be needed later this evening.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44539772 45349743 46329711 47289529 47829418 48009303
               47939264 47569253 47169264 46959342 46479453 45739518
               44979550 44309606 44029748 44539772 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN