Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2282

   Mesoscale Discussion 2282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112024Z - 112300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage
   through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. The
   strongest storms will be capable of producing a few locally damaging
   wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Preceding a convectively augmented midlevel trough
   moving slowly eastward across the Ozarks, isolated thunderstorms are
   evolving along a north/south-oriented composite outflow/stationary
   boundary in far eastern AR. Ahead of this activity, continued
   diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will further destabilize
   the pre-convective air mass, though overall buoyancy will be limited
   by poor midlevel lapse rates. Nevertheless, the relatively focused
   area of forcing for ascent and weakly veering wind profile
   accompanying/trailing a remnant MCV could promote a few strong
   storms over the next few hours. The primary concern will be locally
   damaging wind gusts with any loosely organized clusters that develop
   through this evening.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35329051 35779018 36328990 36708955 36858914 36868881
               36608823 36198803 35648814 34498889 34058943 34039006
               34269046 34469072 34729077 35329051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH