Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2281

   Mesoscale Discussion 2281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northern North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111937Z - 112200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a risk of locally damaging
   wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis and visible satellite
   imagery indicate a stationary boundary extending from far
   northeastern NC into south-central VA. Here, continued diurnal
   heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is
   yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy. Despite the stronger
   midlevel flow and related deep-layer shear being displaced slightly
   to the north, this boundary should continue to provide a focus for
   loosely organized thunderstorm clusters through the remainder of the
   afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will promote locally
   damaging wind gusts with the stronger clusters that evolve, and
   isolated/marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with any
   favorable cell/boundary interactions.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37097985 37607966 37867930 37887887 37697838 37207744
               36947673 36627642 36257656 35937706 35927751 36137858
               36527941 36837974 37097985 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN