Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2277

   Mesoscale Discussion 2277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and southwest
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100543Z - 100745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic hail and damaging gusts are possible for a few
   hours tonight with scattered strong storms.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed this evening
   within a post-frontal upslope flow regime across southeastern CO and
   western KS.  Continued weak ascent and moderate buoyancy aloft will
   likely support numerous updrafts, including some stronger ones
   through tonight. Deep-layer shear is supportive of
   occasional/transient organization with splitting supercells already
   observed. This will support some potential for sporadic severe hail
   with the stronger storms over the next few hours. Damaging wind
   potential is more uncertain given the boundary layer is likely
   somewhat stable and should become more stable with time. However,
   some potential may exist as storms cluster and occasional stronger
   downdrafts develop.

   So far the stronger/organized storms have been more transient in
   nature. Short term guidance does show storms persisting through the
   overnight with some clustering as they move into southwest KS. While
   sporadic severe potential is evident, the environment should become
   more stable and should limit the severe risk with time. Given the
   limited potential for organization and then environment becoming
   less favorable with time a WW is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 09/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38750497 38980280 38980143 38680072 38330045 37730068
               37440099 37060241 37040326 37070441 37200499 37610511
               38750497 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN