Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2275

   Mesoscale Discussion 2275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the southern/central Great Plains into
   the Lower Missouri Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092148Z - 092345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts will remain possible
   through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along a
   convectively reinforced surface cold front extending from just south
   of Kansas City, MO, into the TX/OK Panhandles. The environment
   along/ahead of this boundary is characterized by 500-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE and very steep low-level lapse rates (>9 C/km), with surface
   temperatures commonly in the low 100s F. Deep-layer flow/shear
   remains weak, with regional VWPs generally sampling 20-25 kts or
   less through the column. This should continue to promote a
   pulse-severe storm mode, with the potential for isolated
   damaging/severe wind gusts to accompany stronger downdraft (as
   evidenced by a recently measured 72 mph gust in the northern Texas
   Panhandle).

   The exception is across portions of west-central MO, where locally
   greater convective coverage is noted in closer proximity to stronger
   mid-level westerlies and in the vicinity of a weak surface low.
   Stronger effective shear (30-40 kts) coupled with marginally greater
   buoyancy (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may support a somewhat more
   well-organized cluster that would evolve eastward into west-central
   MO. Recent HRRR/RRFS explicit wind gust forecasts suggest some
   potential exists for isolated gusts up to 55-65 mph.

   The overall severe risk is expected to remain relatively isolated,
   however, precluding the need for watch issuance.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 09/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36779983 37009912 37379794 37749679 38029622 38269592
               38559571 38669560 38879487 38899389 38789356 38619312
               38409305 38179302 38019315 37909333 37749362 37679383
               37639397 36929585 36209816 35909927 35839986 35870013
               35990028 36190037 36450025 36670008 36779983 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH