Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2274

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Mesoscale Discussion 2274
MD 2274 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 2274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into northwestern
   Pennsylvania and far western New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665...

   Valid 092042Z - 092215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
   over the next few hours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells, transient supercells, and short line
   segments have become established along/ahead of a surface trough.
   These storms are overspreading a boundary layer characterized by
   80s/70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints, where 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE is in place, along with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
   The current thinking is that these storms will maintain their
   intensity and continue to pose a risk for a few damaging gusts. A
   brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially for any storms
   that anchor on the baroclinic boundary, roughly established along
   the OH/PA/NY border area.

   ..Squitieri.. 09/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40788318 41448218 42137974 42437826 42457784 42047761
               41457775 40707944 40398064 40258188 40318241 40498309
               40788318 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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