Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2268

   Mesoscale Discussion 2268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 663...

   Valid 080034Z - 080230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 663
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated supercell approaching the Harvey ND vicinity
   the next hour or two may pose a continuing risk for a tornado.  This
   threat probably will diminish by or shortly after 9 PM CDT, with the
   risk for large hail and localized strong surface gusts otherwise the
   primary severe threats into late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent isolated supercell initiation near/east of
   Garrison appeared focused in the vicinity of a developing weak
   surface low, along a baroclinic zone near the interface of a more
   strong heated/deeply mixed boundary layer across the western Dakotas
   and a seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content environment to
   its north/east.  Latest Rapid Refresh suggest that this may be
   maintained another hour or two, east-northeastward toward the Devils
   Lake vicinity through 02-03Z, before the surface low weakens. 
   However, forcing for ascent and destabilization associated with warm
   advection based around the 850 mb layer, beneath weak cooling and
   erosion of inhibition in the 700-500 mb layer, may support a
   continuing risk for convection capable of producing large hail and
   localized strong surface gusts into late evening.

   ..Kerr.. 09/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48480131 48779985 48519833 47699877 47410022 47830069
               48480131 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN