Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2266

   Mesoscale Discussion 2266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Nebraska and far
   northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072230Z - 080000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts and perhaps an
   instance of marginally severe hail may occur with developing
   thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along a
   weak surface boundary/confluence zone across southwestern
   NE/northwestern KS where latest objective analysis suggests MLCIN
   has eroded. Latest surface observations within the inflow
   environment show that temperatures are approaching 100 F, with
   dewpoints in the low 60s F. Modifying the nearby 18z LBF observed
   sounding for these conditions depicts a well-mixed boundary layer
   with very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and an MLLCL height
   above 2.5 km. While available buoyancy remains somewhat modest
   (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), this thermodynamic environment is
   supportive of efficient evaporative cooling, which may foster a risk
   for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. This activity is also
   located along the southeastern periphery of stronger mid/upper-level
   flow, but effective shear of around 30-35 kts and the aforementioned
   steep mid-level lapse rates may be sufficient for an isolated
   instance of marginally severe hail. 

   With the eventual onset of nocturnal cooling (and the indication
   that some convective inhibition may remain within the downstream
   environment), the temporal window for the severe risk may remain
   rather brief. With the added expectation for this risk to remain
   isolated, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

   ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 09/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40479954 40339959 39830016 39400131 39370192 39550211
               39870204 40300170 41000067 41020056 41160008 41079966
               40759952 40479954 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN