Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2265

   Mesoscale Discussion 2265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072053Z - 072300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may evolve this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cumulus field across northern/central North Dakota
   has become increasingly agitated this afternoon, with attempts at
   initiation. At least one tower has sustained with reflectively now
   on radar. Air mass recovery has been ongoing through the afternoon
   across this region after morning convection. Temperatures warmed
   back into the 80s to 90s along and west of a pseudo dryline/cold
   frontal boundary/surface low interface.

   Forcing for ascent is overall weak, with the vorticity max upstream
   across Montana for now, but will increase this evening with the
   increasing low-level jet. The 18z RAOB from BIS sampled a moderately
   unstable air mass with a clockwise turning hodograph and ample deep
   layer shear. Conditionally, the moderately unstable and strongly
   sheared environment would support supercells, capable of large hail,
   damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Trends in CAM guidance through
   the day for less and less convective signal lead to low confidence
   in the overall scenario, but, it does appear that at least isolated
   supercells may develop. This area will be monitored for watch
   potential.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48970357 48390318 48000291 47590259 47030200 46630134
               46500091 46610039 47119992 48019955 48689997 48830025
               49040095 48970357 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN