Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2262

   Mesoscale Discussion 2262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

   Areas affected...portions of north-central Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662...

   Valid 070549Z - 070715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail and gusts remain possible with several
   supercells moving across north-central MT this evening. Storms
   should weaken as they move into southern Canada later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells, some relatively intense, ongoing
   across Phillips and Fergus counties in north-central MT remain
   capable of severe hail and gusts this evening. Relatively moist
   conditions with northeasterly surface winds are supporting moderate
   elevated buoyancy which will continue to support these storms as
   they move northeast at 25-30 kt. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will
   continue to favor a supercell storm mode.

   As the boundary layer continues to cool, effective parcels will
   likely become more elevated. This should gradually weaken the storms
   as they approach the international border. However, the environment
   remains supportive of severe storms for the next couple of hours.
   Severe hail (some approaching 2 inches), and severe gusts are likely
   given the organized storm mode and favorable environment.

   ..Lyons.. 09/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48700880 49020862 49080746 49030696 48930676 48680684
               48130716 47830754 47730777 47570799 47440833 47420851
               47460866 47500887 48210868 48700880 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN