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Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026 Areas affected...the western Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent portions of eastern Wyoming/southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062336Z - 070130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...One or two supercells may impact portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent portions of the high plains into the 7-9 PM MDT time frame, posing a risk for large hail and localized strong downbursts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been initiating within modest surface troughing near/west of the eastern Wyoming state border vicinity, to the south of the Black Hills. This is occurring as moistening southeasterly near-surface flow contributes to notable boundary-layer destabilization beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates across the Nebraska Panhandle, toward the higher terrain. Due to pronounced veering of wind fields to west-southwesterly in mid/upper-levels, shear appears moderately strong, but deep-layer mean wind fields are only supporting slow northeastward/eastward propagation of ongoing storms. Still, inflow of increasingly moist and potentially unstable mixed-layer air (in excess of 2000 J/kg) could eventually support substantive further intensification of ongoing storms, including the cell now to the west of Scottsbluff NE, into the 01-03Z. This may be aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet in excess of 30 kt, though it remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will remain sufficient to maintain storm development thereafter, in the presence of strengthening inhibition. ..Kerr/Smith.. 09/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43010397 42930319 41600339 41510411 42450463 43010397 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN