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Mesoscale Discussion 2253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Areas affected...Western IA into northwest MO...northeast KS...and
far eastern NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061945Z - 062145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storm development is possible
later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A midlevel shortwave trough is moving across eastern
NE/SD this afternoon, along the northern periphery of a persistent
upper ridge. In advance of this shortwave, persistent convection is
ongoing from northern IA into southwest MN. While storms have
occasionally intensified within this area of convection, weak
deep-layer shear and relatively limited heating/destabilization has
thus far limited severe potential.
To the south of this area of persistent convection, a narrow axis of
stronger heating/destabilization has developed from
west-central/southwest IA into northwest MO and northeast KS, with
multiple areas of building cumulus noted in visible imagery.
HRRR/RRFS guidance continues to depict scattered storm development
within the primary instability axis later this afternoon,
potentially aided by the approaching shortwave trough. Deep-layer
flow is generally weak to modest, but veering of the low-level wind
profile will support some enhancement to effective shear/SRH. This
will result in potential for some storm organization, given the
presence of 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, but any cells/clusters
that do develop will tend to propagate southward along the
instability axis, which could result in a few relatively long-lived
storms with hail and damaging-wind potential. Watch issuance is
possible if trends continue to support development of multiple
storms within this corridor.
..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39189547 41659638 41869589 41959569 42279492 41819424
40339363 39139326 38659342 38239421 38339498 39189547
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN